Setting the Context
The Miami Dolphins return to Indianapolis with a clear mission: erase the memory of last year’s 16–10 loss and prove that 2025 will be different. In that 2024 matchup, Miami was forced to play without Tua Tagovailoa, leaned heavily on the run, and watched the Colts capitalize on turnovers and missed opportunities. Anthony Richardson’s legs extended just enough drives to tilt the game, while Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle were erased from the stat sheet. The result was an offensive performance that looked nothing like the high-flying Dolphins fans are used to.
Why 2025 Looks Different
Fast forward to this season and the storylines look very different. With Tua healthy, the Dolphins regain the vertical passing element that drives their offense. Miami averaged nearly a yard more per play with him under center in 2024 and converted third downs at a much higher rate. When Tua is missing, their passing game compresses, defenses sit in two-high shells, and the wide receiver duo that normally terrifies opponents is reduced to decoys. That cannot happen again if Miami hopes to flip the script.
Trench Focus: Interior vs. Buckner, LT Question
The offensive line is another critical piece. Last year, the Colts defensive front, led by DeForest Buckner, consistently won inside and forced Miami into long-yardage situations. This offseason the Dolphins invested in their interior, adding veterans and a rookie to raise the floor. But they still face questions at left tackle after Terron Armstead’s retirement. How Patrick Paul handles Indy’s stunts and simulated pressure will go a long way toward deciding whether Tua can stay comfortable in the pocket.
Miami’s Offensive Plan
Miami’s game plan will likely open with quick RPO looks to Jaylen Waddle and rookie Malik Washington, stressing Kenny Moore II in space and establishing rhythm. Expect plenty of pre-snap motion with Tyreek Hill to manipulate safeties and create windows for glance routes and digs. If the Colts overcommit to collapsing the interior, Miami can pivot to screens, sprint-outs, and quick game concepts that move the chains in smaller chunks. If they play with a lead late, expect fresh legs from Ollie Gordon II to salt away the clock.
Containing QB Mobility
Defensively, Miami must solve the same problem that haunted them in 2024: quarterback mobility. Richardson gashed them with 56 rushing yards last season, and now Daniel Jones presents a similar scramble threat. The Dolphins edge trio of Jaelan Phillips, Bradley Chubb, and Chop Robinson, who have embraced the label of the three-headed monster, needs to generate pressure without losing contain. Expect some simulated pressures and disguised coverages designed to force Jones into mistakes while keeping Jonathan Taylor from dictating the pace on early downs.
The Colts’ Blueprint
For Indianapolis, the formula does not change much. Their ideal game is a grind-it-out contest where Taylor and the offensive line generate steady gains, Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs convert key third downs, and the defense forces Miami to finish drives instead of landing explosive plays. Last year, they survived with patience and opportunism, taking advantage of Miami’s turnovers and a missed field goal. Against a healthy Tua, they will need more than luck. They will need Buckner to wreck plays inside, the secondary to disguise coverage, and their front to keep Miami’s timing off balance.
What Will Decide It
Ultimately, this game comes down to whether Miami can protect the ball and unlock its star receivers. Last year, Tyreek and Waddle combined for just two catches. That cannot happen again. If the Dolphins stay balanced, hit on explosives, and protect their quarterback, they should control the flow. If Indianapolis can repeat the 2024 blueprint, win the turnover battle, compress the field, and shorten the game, then the Colts have a chance to pull another upset.
Projection
Eye-Scout projection: Dolphins 28, Colts 17. Miami’s firepower with Tua back in rhythm should be too much for Indy to contain over four quarters. Expect Tyreek and Waddle to reassert themselves, with De’Von Achane adding chunk runs and screens to keep the Colts defense on its heels.
Fantasy Quick Hits
- Start: Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, De’Von Achane.
- Deep sleepers: Malik Washington and Ollie Gordon II if Miami plays with a lead.
- Colts: Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman Jr. are viable. Daniel Jones is a sit in standard formats.